The battery inventory is too large, the new car battery is getting smaller and smaller, and the price war will not stop in 2025.

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The battery inventory is too large, the new car battery is getting smaller and smaller, and the price war will not stop in 2025.

In order to sell the car, the current car circle has been further degraded from the palace drama to the scene of children in kindergarten.

For example, if you can’t beat it, call your parents; For example, encourage "social animals"; For example, I used to splash dirty water with a basin in my hand, but now I’m going into sprinkler batch operation. For another example, car companies can selectively forget the social law that "the Internet has memory" and say something that makes the industry feel a little abrupt but acceptable.

On Monday, car companies focused on rumors. Ideal rumors of layoffs, rumors of unintentional acquisition of Gaohe, which has been suspended for 50 days, handed over its soul to Huawei; On Tuesday, a series of stories broke out. For the release of a new car, some employees missed the birth of their children, Lian Yang didn’t take time off for four times, sent young children to boarding schools, and were asked to apologize in writing to prove that they were better than Xiaomi, but they made a mistake in Xiaomi’s data. On Thursday, Yin Tongyue gave up his soul in the intellectual world. In his speech, he directly pointed out that "in China, building a good car can’t be separated from Huawei technology" and that Zhiji reported that he was hacked by Xiaomi. However, the words were vague, only referring to relevant departments and institutions, suggesting that they learn from the legal department model of other car companies, rather than the current model of shaking people.

In the world of adults, there is no right or wrong, only interests. So in short, these are all forced by selling cars. Although the auto show has not yet officially opened, the market can expect that the scene has been born, and there is not enough to watch over 300,000 yuan. The price war within 300,000 yuan has intensified and it has begun to be unreasonable.

If the price can’t go down, then force the supplier.

Although it did not open, the 2024 Beijing Auto Show has shown the biggest difference from the international auto show four years ago and even in the epidemic.

The price of fuel vehicles with high attention and carrying sales volume has dropped to 200,000 yuan, and the price of new energy vehicles has dropped to 300,000 yuan. And this is not only because the price war hit the terminal discount to this price range, but also the active behavior of car companies, that is, actively reducing the car price to this range.

In the 2020 Beijing Auto Show, the hot spot in the luxury car field is more than 400,000 yuan, and joint venture brands, even Korean brands, are hitting the high end, all of which are more than 200,000 yuan; The main line of China brand is to rush to sell well above 200,000 yuan, starting at 680,000 yuan, and the price of the main sales version is increased for a long time, and the new products of Weixiaoli are not less than 250,000 yuan.

In the 2024 Beijing Auto Show, we chose not to hand-to-hand combat in April, and Mercedes-Benz pure electric G-class, G-class and G-class were all market segments. In the joint venture sector, the north and south are the replacement of heavy oil vehicles, including L Pro and Brand New, which will be important participants in the next 150,000-200,000 yuan, Toyota Hug and Huawei, and the new electric vehicle has been staring at the 150,000 yuan level. China brands have embraced the tide of price reduction in an all-round way, and will announce their cheapest models before the auto show. Will they start at 230,000 yuan? Huawei’s positioning is lower than that of M7, and the popularity of M7 depends on price reduction exceeding 70,000 yuan. And launch the second brand respectively, with the former embracing 250,000 yuan and the latter embracing 150,000 yuan.

Well, if you add Zhiji L6, who recently struggled with Xiaomi’s public opinion, the semi-solid battery is packaged into a solid battery, but the pre-sale price is no more than 330,000 yuan, and everything is rolling down and inward. There is even a trend. After a continuous decline of more than one year, A00-class new cars, which used to replace old scooters, have started to increase their weight again, which can explain the problem of "difficult to grab sales".

The facts before consumers are also very clear. In order to cope with the continuous price war, the official reduction of old cars and terminal concessions are more effective except BYD, whether it is an insurance subsidy of 8,000 yuan or a replacement subsidy of 1 billion yuan from Weilai and an ideal terminal discount of 18,000 yuan, the final degree of stimulation is not great. Because from the point of view of monthly sales, the sales fluctuation of various brands before and after the policy is only between 50 million and 10 thousand units, which has limited impact on the whole market.

Technological progress and scale effect are only in the hands of a few car companies. In response to the price war, most car companies choose to use shrinkage to deal with it, including the surface and the back. Open, such as Yu Chengdong to save again. If we only look at the top 95% of the contents of Huawei HarmonyOS Spring Communication Meeting about automobiles, it will be useless to most consumers. Because, no one thought that Huawei’s re-listing was to repeat what was said at the press conference in 2023. Until the last 5%, when the price and rights and interests were announced, the capacity of the starter battery pack increased by 20kWh, and the pure battery life of CLTC increased by 155 km, but the final price was still 249,800 yuan. The price of the Max and Max+versions of the rear-drive long-life intelligent driving model has been lowered by 20,000 yuan. There are also some secret changes in intelligence, and the ADS basic version that realizes high-speed and urban NCA is under-allocated.

In addition, avoiding the old car owners in backstab, giving tablets and 10,000 red envelopes, the process before and after the listing of the new car was smooth.

What Huawei used was to increase the allocation and protect the price, which was ultimately equivalent to reducing the price, while Tucki used the simplest and rudest method to reduce the allocation and reduce the price. The latest version of PLUS, the limited time price dropped to 179,900 yuan, but the price paid was that the sound system cut off 10 speakers, the main driver’s lumbar support, and the front seat ventilation.

The bright side is easy to detect, while the dark side is more difficult to detect. For example, in the recent Xinwangda/Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited/Honeycomb battery mixing incident, consumers found that the battery was not the biggest brand Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited after picking up the car, which not only caused the consumers’ own cognition of information, but also caused the official information synchronization in the sales process. But in any case, the ideal once again completed the cost capture.

Traditional cars have 30,000 parts, and new energy cars have 15,000-20,000 parts, and 50% of the parts of the two are purchased from parts suppliers, all of which are familiar names to you and me, such as Mainland China, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited and BYD Foday.

The contract has already been signed, and the amount and number of parts have already been determined. However, car companies generally have a 3%-5% demand for parts suppliers. The reason is very simple. If a part of a car can save the cost of 50 yuan, selling 10,000 cars can save 500,000 yuan. Among the tens of thousands of parts, there are many parts that can make a fuss about the cost.

And no one can stop it, the battery is overcapacity.

After entering 2024, there are two common ways to deduct the cost of spare parts. One is to use leather for plastic lining, and plastic lining for plastic lining. Another example is that the old model has guard plates, and the new model has been cancelled, as well as the presence or absence of sound insulation cotton, and the size of sound insulation cotton has changed from large to small. For another example, the number of floors in sound insulation glass or the suppliers have changed. This may not have an impact on the use of consumers, because it meets the design indicators, but the feedback on the detailed experience has indeed changed.

The second is to adjust the machinery, power, transmission and other structures that users do not understand. Taking the ideal L7 as an example, the 2023 motor is Huichuan+Huawei, and the 2024 motor is replaced by Honeycomb. Of course, this is still a relatively obvious part. Other parts also include that the motor power between the new and old models suddenly shrinks, and the acceleration performance of the vehicle also slows down by 1 second.

Of course, there are other more shrinkage, such as safety collision. The performance of A-pillar /B-pillar is different when the test rules of the same design model remain unchanged for several years. Of course, all of the above is also the behavior that almost all car companies have done in different periods since the global automobile industry developed for more than 130 years. Consumers are also thousands of people. Some people think it is not important, while others think it is intolerable.

In the current market environment, as long as the car can be sold and the sales volume piled up, many remaining details can be skipped first.

Of course, in the new energy era, the most cost-effective part for most car companies is the power battery with the highest cost. And look at the new round of actions of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, Foday, Zhongchuang Singapore Airlines and other head power battery enterprises. It is obvious to the naked eye that the price war will never stop in 2025, and it will not be known until 2026.

Moreover, the statement is different from that of He Xiaopeng and Li Xiang. The reason for entering the knockout stage in recent years is not the rapid growth of various technologies, but the overcapacity of batteries, and car companies have to fight price wars.

Essentially, at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, the price war suddenly increased further, which originated from the sudden inventory of power batteries exceeding 100GWh h. If all these inventories were used to manufacture BYD, it would be enough for at least 3 million vehicles.

Data from China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance: In 2023, the cumulative sales volume of power batteries was 616.3GWh, the cumulative loading volume was 387.7GWh, the cumulative export volume was 127.4GWh, and the inventory was 101GWh.

Power batteries account for 30%-50% of the cost of the whole vehicle, which is the industry consensus from 2020 to now. As the price of lithium carbonate, the raw material of batteries, began to fall in 2023, the price of power batteries went from soaring to rapid decline.

In the first half of 2023, Ferrous lithium phosphate quoted 0.8 yuan /Wh for square batteries, and in the second half of 2023, 0.4 yuan /Wh for similar batteries. In the first quarter of 2024, the quotation for such batteries has dropped to 0.3 yuan /Wh. In one year, the most critical battery cost component price dropped by over 100%, and roughly converted to the vehicle cost, there was more than 20% room for decline.

Even the script that the cost of lithium carbonate will rise again in 2023 is hard to stop the tide of battery price reduction and price war now.

In 2023, Zhu Huarong, the chairman of the automobile company, publicly showed the data. It is estimated that by 2025, the production capacity of China market will need 1000GWh to meet the demand, while the planned production capacity of power battery factory is 4800GWh, with an excess of over 380%.

Previously, the planning of power battery capacity was to spread to the world. However, with Mercedes-Benz slowing down the electrification target in 2030, the electrification process in major consumer areas such as Europe is not up to expectations, and more and more automakers who have suffered from the battery price increase in 2022-2023 have begun to build their own battery capacity. The industrial competition and optimization pattern of power batteries are far more serious than that of automakers.

Because of the underlying technology, when the market trend changes, the battery capacity of old technology, old equipment and old technology is almost completely dead, and will be required to be replaced by car companies. At present, the latest best-selling vehicle technology on the market, the charging speed has reached above 3C, in other words, a large number of 2.2C batteries are seeking a way out.

On the other hand, battery companies have also begun to give up profits, change their original high profile, and want to sell their battery capacity. The pressure continues to drop, so the selling pressure of car companies has risen exponentially.

Driven by the battery factory, the logic of car companies has also become, first win the scale, and then consider the profit. For example, the key data in BYD’s 2023 financial report, the net profit margin of the automobile business is 5.5%, which is a feature. In addition, since 2023, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, which has always been strong, has changed from high-profile to low-profile in order to go to stock.

Rumor has it that He Xiaopeng stayed at his headquarters for a week in order to get goods from Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited. In 2023, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited first launched a lithium mine rebate plan to car companies. If car companies buy more, if they sign a contract at a certain price, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited will supply the lithium mine at guaranteed price, regardless of whether the price of lithium mine rises again. In addition, Zeng Yuqun, the chairman of the board of directors, frequently appeared in the cooperation conferences between Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited and many small factories, such as Jiangqi, Sailisi and so on. For another example, Chery icar, which just released a new car, has not yet grown in annual sales, but it is also the title of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited Cooperation.

Write at the end:

The source problem is mostly the most critical problem. The current power battery capacity structure is changing, but in order to cope with more brutal competition, the main line is to reduce battery capacity, directly reduce costs and enhance price competitiveness.

More and more car companies have introduced plug-in/extended-range new cars and cut off pure electricity, such as Huawei’s boundary; More and more pure electric vehicle companies have introduced new cars with small batteries, such as the second brand of Weilai and MONA of Tucki.

The sales growth rate of pure electric vehicles has dropped rapidly, and the sales growth rate of hybrid vehicles (including extended range) has risen rapidly, which is a typical feature.

According to public data, in 2023, the battery loading capacity of plug-in hybrid technology increased as high as 109.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 4.4 times that of pure electric. Plug-in and range extension mostly use power batteries with pure battery life of 100-200km, such as 40kWh capacity on M7. This needs to double the capacity of similar pure electric vehicles, such as 75kWh and 100kWh. The sales volume of pure electric vehicles keeps going down, while that of hybrid vehicles keeps going up. As a result, the elimination of power battery capacity and the new reshuffle are actually coming out.

Therefore, there is no need to discuss the question that the price war will end at an appropriate time, because the end of the source is unpredictable. It is foreseeable that with the start of the knockout, there will be a rise of car companies, and there will be a logic of car companies, and the structure of the battery industry will change with the changes in the sales end.

Not long ago, at the Electric committee of 100, academicians, car owners and power battery companies all mentioned the same topic, "Be stronger and bigger". Then, in view of the decreasing demand for bicycle power batteries, there is a large amount of inventory and production capacity to be optimized, and the price war can basically stabilize in 2025, which is already a pleasant surprise.

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